Mash'al 2–1 Olmaliq: Result & Stats | Super League

Mash'al

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Olmaliq

Z. Akromov 45'

S. Abduraymov 4'

D. Juraev 90+4'

5/19/2021

Super League · Round 9Stadion im. Bahrom Vafoyev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Mash'al30%

×Draw29%

Olmaliq41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mash'alExpected goals in this matchOlmaliq

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.22

Mash'al

1.00

Olmaliq

1.22

Olmaliq creates 22% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 31 away

0.67

creates per match

1.10

1.33

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Mash'al

0.67

Olmaliq

1.10

allows per match

Mash'al

1.33

Olmaliq

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mash'al+0.00on par

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mash'al ↓

Olmaliq →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mash'al or draw

59%

Mash'al or Olmaliq

71%

Draw or Olmaliq

70%

Winning margin

Mash'al wins by 2+

11%

Olmaliq wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Mash'al 1+ goals

63%

Mash'al 2+ goals

26%

Mash'al 3+ goals

8%

Olmaliq 1+ goals

70%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

34%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mash'al (draw refunded)

42%

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mash'al at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Olmaliq away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mash'al attack 0.67 + Olmaliq defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.00

Olmaliq attack 1.10 + Mash'al defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mash'al scores more

30%

level

29%

Olmaliq scores more

41%

Olmaliq at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Olmaliq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

S. Abduraymov

34'

M. Yuldoshev

41'

S. Rakhmanov

41'

Z. Polvonov← M. Kosimov

45'

Z. Akromov

46'

Alvin Fortes← S. Gadoev

46'

M. Toshmatov← H. Gafurov

60'

S. Shaakhmedov← S. Rakhmanov

67'

I. Numonov← Z. Akromov

72'

I. Ifeanyi← M. Ibe

77'

M. Suleymanov← D. Axmadaliev

81'

K. Sagdullaev← K. Murtazaev

81'

S. Shaymanov← S. Abduraymov

90'

I. Ifeanyi

90+4'

D. Juraev

Mash'al

Olmaliq

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Abduraymo

Kuziyev

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Khomyakov

67'▲I. Numonov←▼Z. Akromov

72'▲I. Ifeanyi←▼M. Ibe

81'▲K. Sagdullaev←▼K. Murtazaev

81'▲S. Shaymanov←▼S. Abduraymov

Mash'al substitutes

NumonovIfeanyiSagdullaevShaymanovNosirovTukhtaboyevUsmanovAbdusalomovAllaev

Manager: M. Qosimov

41'▲Z. Polvonov←▼M. Kosimov

46'▲Alvin Fortes←▼S. Gadoev

46'▲M. Toshmatov←▼H. Gafurov

60'▲S. Shaakhmedov←▼S. Rakhmanov

77'▲M. Suleymanov←▼D. Axmadaliev

Olmaliq substitutes

PolvonovFortesToshmatovShaakhmedovSuleymanovYuldashovSultanovKozakRahimov