Mash'al 0–2 Lokomotiv: Result & Stats

Mash'al

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Lokomotiv

K. Abraev 45'

A. Ismoilov 44'

3/5/2026

Super League · Round 2Stadion Guzor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Mash'al31%

×Draw29%

Lokomotiv39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mash'alExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.15

Mash'al

1.00

Lokomotiv

1.15

Lokomotiv creates 15% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 74 away

0.75

creates per match

1.16

1.13

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Mash'al

0.75

Lokomotiv

1.16

allows per match

Mash'al

1.13

Lokomotiv

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mash'al+0.00on par

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mash'al ↓

Lokomotiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mash'al or draw

61%

Mash'al or Lokomotiv

71%

Draw or Lokomotiv

69%

Winning margin

Mash'al wins by 2+

12%

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Mash'al 1+ goals

63%

Mash'al 2+ goals

26%

Mash'al 3+ goals

8%

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

68%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

32%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mash'al (draw refunded)

45%

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mash'al at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.13 · 48 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mash'al attack 0.75 + Lokomotiv defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.00

Lokomotiv attack 1.16 + Mash'al defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mash'al scores more

31%

level

29%

Lokomotiv scores more

39%

Lokomotiv at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

44'

45'

46'

46'

N. Muzaffarov← R. Abubakar

48'

N. Nuriddinov←

60'

S. Shodiboev← S. Nurulloev

60'

N. Ibraimov← K. Abraev

66'

V. Stojanovski← S. Abduraymov

68'

J. Nisic← M. Reimov

79'

M. Zoirov← S. Mirzaev

79'

B. Tupliev← T. Abdukholikov

83'

R. Ayagwa← S. Ochilov

90+2'

A. Kozlov

90+4'

R. Khadzhiev

Mash'al

Lokomotiv

1

Kozlov

33

Zoteev

15

Susnjar

5

⚽

Ismoilov

26

Yuldashev

17

▼

Mirzaev

14

Ivanov

70

▼

Reimov

7

⚽

▼

Abraev

11

▼

Abdukholi

9

▼

35

28

69

15

2

14

▼

Abubakar

5

▼

Ochilov

10

Murtazoev

8

▼

Abduraymo

9

Ganikhono

97

▼

Chidi

Manager: Igor Surov

46'▲A. Murodov←▼A. Chidi

46'▲N. Muzaffarov←▼R. Abubakar

48'▲N. Nuriddinov←▼—

66'▲V. Stojanovski←▼S. Abduraymov

83'▲R. Ayagwa←▼S. Ochilov

Mash'al substitutes

34Juraev17Murodov22Muzaffarov37Fayziev13Nuriddinov1Soyibov7Stojanovski99Ayagwa18Abdulkhakov

Manager: Mirko Jelicic

60'▲S. Shodiboev←▼S. Nurulloev

60'▲N. Ibraimov←▼K. Abraev

68'▲J. Nisic←▼M. Reimov

79'▲M. Zoirov←▼S. Mirzaev

79'▲B. Tupliev←▼T. Abdukholikov

Lokomotiv substitutes

71Mirzaev10Shodiboev23Turopov99Zoirov12Shevchenko8Tupliev61Ibraimov45Nisic28Baratov

Match Recap: Mash'al vs Lokomotiv

Lokomotiv beat Mash'al 2-0 in Super League on March 5, 2026.

Goals: A. Ismoilov (44'), K. Abraev (45').

The match was played at Stadion Guzor in Guzar.

Mash'al vs Lokomotiv — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Mash'al vs Lokomotiv