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Masfut vs Fursan Hispania — Division 1 2018

Masfut
Masfut
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Fursan Hispania
Fursan Hispania
11/5/2022Division 1Division 1 · Round 9Masfut Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Masfut52%
×Draw23%
Fursan Hispania25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Masfut
1.81
Fursan Hispania
1.17

Masfut creates 55% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 16 away

creates per match

Masfut
1.18
Fursan Hispania
0.81

allows per match

Masfut
1.52
Fursan Hispania
2.44

finishing

Masfut+0.00on par
Fursan Hispania+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masfut ↓

Fursan Hispania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Masfut or draw
75%
Masfut or Fursan Hispania
77%
Draw or Fursan Hispania
48%

Winning margin

Masfut wins by 2+
29%
Fursan Hispania wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Masfut 1+ goals
84%
Masfut 2+ goals
54%
Masfut 3+ goals
27%
Fursan Hispania 1+ goals
69%
Fursan Hispania 2+ goals
33%
Fursan Hispania 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Masfut (draw refunded)
68%
Fursan Hispania (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masfut at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

Fursan Hispania away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masfut attack 1.18 + Fursan Hispania defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.81

Fursan Hispania attack 0.81 + Masfut defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Masfut scores more
52%
level
23%
Fursan Hispania scores more
25%

Masfut at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Masfut will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Masfut vs Fursan Hispania

Fursan Hispania beat Masfut 2-1 in Division 1 on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Masfut Club Stadium in Masfut.