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Masfut vs Dibba Al-Fujairah — Presidents Cup 2019

Masfut
Masfut
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Dibba Al-Fujairah
9/27/2024Presidents CupPresidents Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundMasfut Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Masfut27%
×Draw22%
Dibba Al-Fujairah51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Masfut
1.42
Dibba Al-Fujairah
2.00

Dibba Al-Fujairah creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Masfut
1.20
Dibba Al-Fujairah
2.00

allows per match

Masfut
2.00
Dibba Al-Fujairah
1.63

finishing

Masfut+0.00on par
Dibba Al-Fujairah+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masfut ↓

Dibba Al-Fujairah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Masfut or draw
49%
Masfut or Dibba Al-Fujairah
78%
Draw or Dibba Al-Fujairah
73%

Winning margin

Masfut wins by 2+
12%
Dibba Al-Fujairah wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Masfut 1+ goals
76%
Masfut 2+ goals
41%
Masfut 3+ goals
17%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 1+ goals
86%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 2+ goals
59%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Masfut (draw refunded)
35%
Dibba Al-Fujairah (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masfut at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Dibba Al-Fujairah away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masfut attack 1.20 + Dibba Al-Fujairah defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 2.00 + Masfut defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Masfut scores more
27%
level
22%
Dibba Al-Fujairah scores more
51%

Dibba Al-Fujairah at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dibba Al-Fujairah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Presidents Cup: Masfut 0–2 Dibba Al-Fujairah

Dibba Al-Fujairah beat Masfut 2-0 in Presidents Cup on September 27, 2024.

The match was played at Masfut Club Stadium in Masfut.