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Masfut vs Al Urooba — Division 1 2018

Masfut
Masfut
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Al Urooba
Al Urooba
9/23/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 3Masfut Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Masfut27%
×Draw26%
Al Urooba48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Masfut
1.08
Al Urooba
1.53

Al Urooba creates 42% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 72 away

creates per match

Masfut
1.18
Al Urooba
1.54

allows per match

Masfut
1.52
Al Urooba
0.99

finishing

Masfut+0.00on par
Al Urooba+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masfut ↓

Al Urooba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Masfut or draw
52%
Masfut or Al Urooba
74%
Draw or Al Urooba
73%

Winning margin

Masfut wins by 2+
10%
Al Urooba wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Masfut 1+ goals
66%
Masfut 2+ goals
29%
Masfut 3+ goals
10%
Al Urooba 1+ goals
78%
Al Urooba 2+ goals
45%
Al Urooba 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Masfut (draw refunded)
36%
Al Urooba (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masfut at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

Al Urooba away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.99 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masfut attack 1.18 + Al Urooba defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.08

Al Urooba attack 1.54 + Masfut defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Masfut scores more
27%
level
26%
Al Urooba scores more
48%

Al Urooba at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Urooba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Masfut vs Al Urooba

Al Urooba beat Masfut 3-1 in Division 1 on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Masfut Club Stadium in Masfut.