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Masfut vs Al Taawon — Division 1 2018

Masfut
Masfut
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Al Taawon
Al Taawon
2/4/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 19Mohammed Bin Saud Al-Qasimi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Masfut39%
×Draw25%
Al Taawon35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Masfut
1.43
Al Taawon
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 72 away

creates per match

Masfut
1.18
Al Taawon
1.18

allows per match

Masfut
1.52
Al Taawon
1.68

finishing

Masfut+0.00on par
Al Taawon+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masfut ↓

Al Taawon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Masfut or draw
65%
Masfut or Al Taawon
75%
Draw or Al Taawon
61%

Winning margin

Masfut wins by 2+
18%
Al Taawon wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Masfut 1+ goals
76%
Masfut 2+ goals
42%
Masfut 3+ goals
17%
Al Taawon 1+ goals
74%
Al Taawon 2+ goals
39%
Al Taawon 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Masfut (draw refunded)
52%
Al Taawon (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masfut at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

Al Taawon away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.68 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masfut attack 1.18 + Al Taawon defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.43

Al Taawon attack 1.18 + Masfut defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Masfut scores more
39%
level
25%
Al Taawon scores more
35%

Masfut at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Masfut will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Masfut vs Al Taawon

Masfut beat Al Taawon 4-2 in Division 1 on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Mohammed Bin Saud Al-Qasimi Stadium in Ash Sha'm.