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Masafi vs Fursan Hispania — Division 1 2018

Masafi
Masafi
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fursan Hispania
Fursan Hispania
3/11/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 25Masafi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Masafi54%
×Draw23%
Fursan Hispania23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Masafi
1.81
Fursan Hispania
1.08

Masafi creates 68% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 16 away

creates per match

Masafi
1.18
Fursan Hispania
0.81

allows per match

Masafi
1.35
Fursan Hispania
2.44

finishing

Masafi+0.00on par
Fursan Hispania+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masafi ↓

Fursan Hispania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Masafi or draw
77%
Masafi or Fursan Hispania
77%
Draw or Fursan Hispania
46%

Winning margin

Masafi wins by 2+
31%
Fursan Hispania wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Masafi 1+ goals
84%
Masafi 2+ goals
54%
Masafi 3+ goals
27%
Fursan Hispania 1+ goals
66%
Fursan Hispania 2+ goals
29%
Fursan Hispania 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Masafi (draw refunded)
71%
Fursan Hispania (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masafi at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.35 · 72 matches

Fursan Hispania away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masafi attack 1.18 + Fursan Hispania defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.81

Fursan Hispania attack 0.81 + Masafi defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Masafi scores more
54%
level
23%
Fursan Hispania scores more
23%

Masafi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Masafi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Masafi vs Fursan Hispania

Masafi beat Fursan Hispania 3-0 in Division 1 on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Masafi Stadium in Masafi.