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Masafi vs Al Thaid — Division 1 2025

Masafi
Masafi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Al Thaid
Al Thaid
R. Abdulla 27'
S. Pouriya 85'
L. Walker O'Neal 41'
5/19/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 32Masafi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Masafi32%
×Draw26%
Al Thaid42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Masafi
1.17
Al Thaid
1.39

Al Thaid creates 19% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

creates per match

Masafi
1.28
Al Thaid
1.56

allows per match

Masafi
1.22
Al Thaid
1.06

finishing

Masafi+0.00on par
Al Thaid+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masafi ↓

Al Thaid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Masafi or draw
58%
Masafi or Al Thaid
74%
Draw or Al Thaid
68%

Winning margin

Masafi wins by 2+
13%
Al Thaid wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Masafi 1+ goals
69%
Masafi 2+ goals
33%
Masafi 3+ goals
11%
Al Thaid 1+ goals
75%
Al Thaid 2+ goals
40%
Al Thaid 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Masafi (draw refunded)
43%
Al Thaid (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masafi at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Al Thaid away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masafi attack 1.28 + Al Thaid defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Al Thaid attack 1.56 + Masafi defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Masafi scores more
32%
level
26%
Al Thaid scores more
42%

Al Thaid at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Thaid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
R. Abdulla
41'
L. Walker O'Neal
85'
S. Pouriya

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Masafi vs Al Thaid

Al Thaid beat Masafi 2-1 in Division 1 on May 19, 2024.

Goals: R. Abdulla (27'), L. Walker O'Neal (41'), S. Pouriya (85').

The match was played at Masafi Stadium in Masafi.