Masafi 1–2 Al Taawon: Result & Stats | Division 1

Masafi

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Al Taawon

R. Abdulla 7'

M. Abibou 78'

M. Badjie 59'

1/21/2023

Division 1 · Round 18Masafi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Masafi35%

×Draw28%

Al Taawon36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MasafiExpected goals in this matchAl Taawon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.18

Masafi

1.16

Al Taawon

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 3 away

1.32

creates per match

1.00

1.35

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Masafi

1.32

Al Taawon

1.00

allows per match

Masafi

1.35

Al Taawon

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Masafi+0.00on par

Al Taawon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masafi ↓

Al Taawon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Masafi or draw

64%

Masafi or Al Taawon

72%

Draw or Al Taawon

65%

Winning margin

Masafi wins by 2+

15%

Al Taawon wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Masafi 1+ goals

69%

Masafi 2+ goals

32%

Masafi 3+ goals

11%

Al Taawon 1+ goals

69%

Al Taawon 2+ goals

33%

Al Taawon 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Masafi (draw refunded)

49%

Al Taawon (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masafi at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

Al Taawon away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masafi attack 1.32 + Al Taawon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Al Taawon attack 1.00 + Masafi defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Masafi scores more

35%

level

28%

Al Taawon scores more

36%

Al Taawon at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Taawon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

R. Abdulla

59'

M. Badjie

78'

M. Abibou

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff