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Marz vs Pinkafeld — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Marz
Marz
FT
0 – 1
Pinkafeld
Pinkafeld
3/8/2024Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 17Sportplatz Marz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Marz28%
×Draw22%
Pinkafeld50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marz
1.44
Pinkafeld
1.98

Pinkafeld creates 38% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 72 away

creates per match

Marz
0.87
Pinkafeld
1.82

allows per match

Marz
2.13
Pinkafeld
2.00

finishing

Marz+0.00on par
Pinkafeld+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marz ↓

Pinkafeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Marz or draw
50%
Marz or Pinkafeld
78%
Draw or Pinkafeld
72%

Winning margin

Marz wins by 2+
13%
Pinkafeld wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Marz 1+ goals
76%
Marz 2+ goals
42%
Marz 3+ goals
18%
Pinkafeld 1+ goals
86%
Pinkafeld 2+ goals
59%
Pinkafeld 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Marz (draw refunded)
36%
Pinkafeld (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marz at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Pinkafeld away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.00 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marz attack 0.87 + Pinkafeld defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Pinkafeld attack 1.82 + Marz defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Marz scores more
28%
level
22%
Pinkafeld scores more
50%

Pinkafeld at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pinkafeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marz vs Pinkafeld

Pinkafeld beat Marz 1-0 in Landesliga - Burgenland on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Marz in Marz.