Marz 0–3 Bad Sauerbrunn: Result & Stats

Marz

FT

0 – 3

Bad Sauerbrunn

8/4/2023

Landesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 1Sportplatz Marz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Marz25%

×Draw23%

Bad Sauerbrunn52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarzExpected goals in this matchBad Sauerbrunn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.84

Marz

1.22

Bad Sauerbrunn

1.84

Bad Sauerbrunn creates 51% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

0.87

creates per match

1.56

2.13

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Marz

0.87

Bad Sauerbrunn

1.56

allows per match

Marz

2.13

Bad Sauerbrunn

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marz+0.00on par

Bad Sauerbrunn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marz ↓

Bad Sauerbrunn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Marz or draw

48%

Marz or Bad Sauerbrunn

77%

Draw or Bad Sauerbrunn

75%

Winning margin

Marz wins by 2+

10%

Bad Sauerbrunn wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Marz 1+ goals

70%

Marz 2+ goals

34%

Marz 3+ goals

12%

Bad Sauerbrunn 1+ goals

84%

Bad Sauerbrunn 2+ goals

55%

Bad Sauerbrunn 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Marz (draw refunded)

33%

Bad Sauerbrunn (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marz at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Bad Sauerbrunn away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.57 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marz attack 0.87 + Bad Sauerbrunn defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.22

Bad Sauerbrunn attack 1.56 + Marz defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Marz scores more

25%

level

23%

Bad Sauerbrunn scores more

52%

Bad Sauerbrunn at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bad Sauerbrunn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff