Fortuna Dusseldorf 2–1 FC Nurnberg: Result & Stats

Fortuna Dusseldorf

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Nurnberg

K. Ayhan 83'

Ewerton 62' (OG)

E. Löwen 41'

2/23/2019

Bundesliga · Round 23Merkur Spielarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf55%

×Draw22%

FC Nurnberg23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna DusseldorfExpected goals in this matchFC Nurnberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.13

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.89

FC Nurnberg

1.13

Fortuna Dusseldorf creates 67% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 26 away

1.47

creates per match

0.81

1.44

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.47

FC Nurnberg

0.81

allows per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.44

FC Nurnberg

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par

FC Nurnberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Dusseldorf ↓

FC Nurnberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Fortuna Dusseldorf or draw

77%

Fortuna Dusseldorf or FC Nurnberg

78%

Draw or FC Nurnberg

45%

Winning margin

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+

32%

FC Nurnberg wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals

85%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals

56%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals

29%

FC Nurnberg 1+ goals

68%

FC Nurnberg 2+ goals

31%

FC Nurnberg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)

71%

FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Dusseldorf at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

FC Nurnberg away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.47 + FC Nurnberg defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.89

FC Nurnberg attack 0.81 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more

55%

level

22%

FC Nurnberg scores more

23%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

K. Stöger

Fortuna Dusseldorf · M

8.3

Match Events

4'

13'

24'

41'

45'

46'

62'

R. Hennings← K. Karaman

62'

M. Ducksch← D. Kownacki

62'

EwertonOwn goal

68'

72'

78'

79'

79'

83'

89'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortunaFC

Overview

74%Possession26%

18Total Shots6

7Corners3

14Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots6

7On Target2

7Off Target3

4Blocked1

9Inside Box2

9Outside Box4

Passing

74%Possession26%

646Total Passes224

574Accurate Passes145

89%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls10

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1