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Fortuna Dusseldorf vs FC Nurnberg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Fortuna Dusseldorf
Fortuna Dusseldorf
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FC Nurnberg
FC Nurnberg
5/3/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 32Düsseldorf Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf48%
×Draw23%
FC Nurnberg29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.78
FC Nurnberg
1.34

Fortuna Dusseldorf creates 33% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 121 away

creates per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.77
FC Nurnberg
1.38

allows per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.31
FC Nurnberg
1.79

finishing

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par
FC Nurnberg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Dusseldorf ↓

FC Nurnberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Fortuna Dusseldorf or draw
71%
Fortuna Dusseldorf or FC Nurnberg
77%
Draw or FC Nurnberg
52%

Winning margin

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+
26%
FC Nurnberg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals
83%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals
53%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals
26%
FC Nurnberg 1+ goals
74%
FC Nurnberg 2+ goals
39%
FC Nurnberg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)
62%
FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Dusseldorf at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.31 · 102 matches

FC Nurnberg away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.79 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.77 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.78

FC Nurnberg attack 1.38 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more
48%
level
23%
FC Nurnberg scores more
29%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Dusseldorf vs FC Nurnberg

Fortuna Dusseldorf beat FC Nurnberg 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Düsseldorf Arena in Düsseldorf.