Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mārupe vs Leevon / PPK — 1. Liga 2026

Mārupe
Mārupe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Leevon / PPK
Leevon / PPK
9/7/20241. Liga1. Liga · Round 16Jaunmārupes stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Mārupe41%
×Draw27%
Leevon / PPK32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mārupe
1.34
Leevon / PPK
1.15

Mārupe creates 17% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

creates per match

Mārupe
1.38
Leevon / PPK
1.21

allows per match

Mārupe
1.09
Leevon / PPK
1.30

finishing

Mārupe+0.00on par
Leevon / PPK+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mārupe ↓

Leevon / PPK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mārupe or draw
68%
Mārupe or Leevon / PPK
73%
Draw or Leevon / PPK
59%

Winning margin

Mārupe wins by 2+
19%
Leevon / PPK wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mārupe 1+ goals
74%
Mārupe 2+ goals
39%
Mārupe 3+ goals
15%
Leevon / PPK 1+ goals
68%
Leevon / PPK 2+ goals
32%
Leevon / PPK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mārupe (draw refunded)
56%
Leevon / PPK (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mārupe at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Leevon / PPK away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mārupe attack 1.38 + Leevon / PPK defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Leevon / PPK attack 1.21 + Mārupe defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mārupe scores more
41%
level
27%
Leevon / PPK scores more
32%

Mārupe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mārupe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mārupe vs Leevon / PPK

Mārupe beat Leevon / PPK 1-0 in 1. Liga on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Jaunmārupes stadions in Jaunmārupe.