Marumo Gallants 0–1 Maritzburg Utd: Result & Stats

Marumo Gallants

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Maritzburg Utd

1/7/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 12Royal Bafokeng Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Marumo Gallants39%

×Draw32%

Maritzburg Utd29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marumo GallantsExpected goals in this matchMaritzburg Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

0.82

Marumo Gallants

1.01

Maritzburg Utd

0.82

Marumo Gallants creates 23% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 77 away

0.86

creates per match

0.64

1.01

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Marumo Gallants

0.86

Maritzburg Utd

0.64

allows per match

Marumo Gallants

1.01

Maritzburg Utd

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marumo Gallants ↓

Maritzburg Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Marumo Gallants or draw

71%

Marumo Gallants or Maritzburg Utd

68%

Draw or Maritzburg Utd

61%

Winning margin

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+

15%

Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals

64%

Marumo Gallants 2+ goals

27%

Marumo Gallants 3+ goals

8%

Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals

56%

Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals

20%

Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)

58%

Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marumo Gallants at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Maritzburg Utd away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marumo Gallants attack 0.86 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.01

Maritzburg Utd attack 0.64 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Marumo Gallants scores more

39%

level

32%

Maritzburg Utd scores more

29%

Marumo Gallants at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Marumo Gallants will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff