Marumo Gallants 3–1 Magesi: Result & Stats

Marumo Gallants

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Magesi

Kamohelo Mahlatsi 90+3'

Phathutshedzo Nange 68'

Xolani Mlambo 52'

Tshepo Kakora 40'

12/7/2024

Premier Soccer League · Round 7Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Marumo Gallants43%

×Draw33%

Magesi24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marumo GallantsExpected goals in this matchMagesi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.68

Marumo Gallants

1.04

Magesi

0.68

Marumo Gallants creates 53% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 31 away

0.86

creates per match

0.35

1.01

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Marumo Gallants

0.86

Magesi

0.35

allows per match

Marumo Gallants

1.01

Magesi

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Magesi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marumo Gallants ↓

Magesi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Marumo Gallants or draw

76%

Marumo Gallants or Magesi

67%

Draw or Magesi

57%

Winning margin

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+

17%

Magesi wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals

65%

Marumo Gallants 2+ goals

28%

Marumo Gallants 3+ goals

9%

Magesi 1+ goals

49%

Magesi 2+ goals

15%

Magesi 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)

65%

Magesi (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marumo Gallants at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Magesi away — creates 0.35, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marumo Gallants attack 0.86 + Magesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Magesi attack 0.35 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Marumo Gallants scores more

43%

level

33%

Magesi scores more

24%

Marumo Gallants at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Marumo Gallants will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

Sekela Sithole

Marumo Gallants · M

8.3

Match Events

10'

25'

34'

36'

40'

Tshepo Kakora↳ Wonderboy Makhubu

40'

Kamohelo Mahlatsi← Siyabulela Shai

40'

Gabadinho Mhango← Thapelo Dhludhlu

43'

Edson Khumalo

52'

Xolani Mlambo↳ Sekela Sithole

55'

Mpambaniso Monde← Xolani Mlambo

62'

Tholang Masegela← Clement Joseph Moshwana

62'

Jacob Everso← Kgaogelo Sekgota

68'

Phathutshedzo Nange↳ Sekela Sithole

76'

Bafedile Baloyi← Tshepo Kakora

78'

Masindi Nemtajela← Sekela Sithole

78'

Siyabonga Nhlapo← Edson Khumalo

85'

Mokhele Maloisane← Deolin Mekoa

90+3'

Kamohelo Mahlatsi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MarumoMagesi

Overview

55%Possession45%

14Total Shots2

7Corners3

9Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots2

5On Target1

7Off Target1

2Blocked0

13Inside Box1

1Outside Box1

Passing

55%Possession45%

418Total Passes345

331Accurate Passes240

79%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0