Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Martos vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Martos
Martos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Málaga II
Málaga II
4/27/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 31Estadio Chamorro Martinez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Martos32%
×Draw31%
Málaga II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Martos
0.96
Málaga II
1.06

Málaga II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 92 away

creates per match

Martos
0.82
Málaga II
1.35

allows per match

Martos
0.76
Málaga II
1.10

finishing

Martos+0.00on par
Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martos ↓

Málaga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Martos or draw
63%
Martos or Málaga II
69%
Draw or Málaga II
68%

Winning margin

Martos wins by 2+
12%
Málaga II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Martos 1+ goals
62%
Martos 2+ goals
25%
Martos 3+ goals
7%
Málaga II 1+ goals
65%
Málaga II 2+ goals
29%
Málaga II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Martos (draw refunded)
46%
Málaga II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martos at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.76 · 34 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martos attack 0.82 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Martos defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Martos scores more
32%
level
31%
Málaga II scores more
37%

Málaga II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Martos 0–1 Málaga II

Málaga II beat Martos 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Chamorro Martinez in Martos.