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Martinroda vs Oberlausitz Neugersdorf — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Martinroda
Martinroda
CANC
12:00
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
2/7/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 18Sportpark Martinroda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Martinroda41%
×Draw23%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Martinroda
1.69
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 36 away

creates per match

Martinroda
1.48
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
0.92

allows per match

Martinroda
2.24
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.89

finishing

Martinroda+0.00on par
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martinroda ↓

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Martinroda or draw
64%
Martinroda or Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
77%
Draw or Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
59%

Winning margin

Martinroda wins by 2+
21%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Martinroda 1+ goals
82%
Martinroda 2+ goals
50%
Martinroda 3+ goals
24%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 1+ goals
79%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 2+ goals
47%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Martinroda (draw refunded)
53%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martinroda at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.89 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martinroda attack 1.48 + Oberlausitz Neugersdorf defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.69

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf attack 0.92 + Martinroda defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Martinroda scores more
41%
level
23%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf scores more
36%

Martinroda at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Martinroda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Martinroda host Oberlausitz Neugersdorf

February 7, 2021: Martinroda take on Oberlausitz Neugersdorf in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Martinroda host Oberlausitz Neugersdorf at Sportpark Martinroda.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.