Martinroda 2–5 Ludwigsfelde: Result & Stats

Martinroda

FT

2 – 5

Ludwigsfelde

9/19/2020

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 5Sportpark Martinroda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Martinroda41%

×Draw23%

Ludwigsfelde36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MartinrodaExpected goals in this matchLudwigsfelde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.60

Martinroda

1.72

Ludwigsfelde

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 50 away

1.48

creates per match

0.96

2.24

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Martinroda

1.48

Ludwigsfelde

0.96

allows per match

Martinroda

2.24

Ludwigsfelde

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Martinroda+0.00on par

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martinroda ↓

Ludwigsfelde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Martinroda or draw

64%

Martinroda or Ludwigsfelde

77%

Draw or Ludwigsfelde

59%

Winning margin

Martinroda wins by 2+

21%

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Martinroda 1+ goals

82%

Martinroda 2+ goals

51%

Martinroda 3+ goals

25%

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals

80%

Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals

47%

Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Martinroda (draw refunded)

53%

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martinroda at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

Ludwigsfelde away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.96 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martinroda attack 1.48 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.72

Ludwigsfelde attack 0.96 + Martinroda defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Martinroda scores more

41%

level

23%

Ludwigsfelde scores more

36%

Martinroda at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Martinroda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff