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Martinroda vs FC Grimma — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Martinroda
Martinroda
FT
1 – 2
FC Grimma
FC Grimma
8/22/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 4Kunstrasen Martinroda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Martinroda39%
×Draw22%
FC Grimma39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Martinroda
1.78
FC Grimma
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 82 away

creates per match

Martinroda
1.48
FC Grimma
1.30

allows per match

Martinroda
2.24
FC Grimma
2.09

finishing

Martinroda+0.00on par
FC Grimma+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martinroda ↓

FC Grimma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Martinroda or draw
61%
Martinroda or FC Grimma
78%
Draw or FC Grimma
61%

Winning margin

Martinroda wins by 2+
20%
FC Grimma wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Martinroda 1+ goals
83%
Martinroda 2+ goals
53%
Martinroda 3+ goals
26%
FC Grimma 1+ goals
83%
FC Grimma 2+ goals
53%
FC Grimma 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Martinroda (draw refunded)
50%
FC Grimma (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martinroda at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

FC Grimma away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.09 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martinroda attack 1.48 + FC Grimma defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.78

FC Grimma attack 1.30 + Martinroda defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Martinroda scores more
39%
level
22%
FC Grimma scores more
39%

Martinroda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Martinroda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Martinroda 1–2 FC Grimma

FC Grimma beat Martinroda 2-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at Kunstrasen Martinroda in Martinroda.