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Martinroda vs Einheit Rudolstadt — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Martinroda
Martinroda
FT
0 – 2
Einheit Rudolstadt
Einheit Rudolstadt
9/29/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 9Kunstrasen Martinroda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Martinroda39%
×Draw22%
Einheit Rudolstadt39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Martinroda
1.80
Einheit Rudolstadt
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 82 away

creates per match

Martinroda
1.48
Einheit Rudolstadt
1.40

allows per match

Martinroda
2.24
Einheit Rudolstadt
2.13

finishing

Martinroda+0.00on par
Einheit Rudolstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martinroda ↓

Einheit Rudolstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Martinroda or draw
61%
Martinroda or Einheit Rudolstadt
78%
Draw or Einheit Rudolstadt
61%

Winning margin

Martinroda wins by 2+
20%
Einheit Rudolstadt wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Martinroda 1+ goals
83%
Martinroda 2+ goals
54%
Martinroda 3+ goals
27%
Einheit Rudolstadt 1+ goals
84%
Einheit Rudolstadt 2+ goals
54%
Einheit Rudolstadt 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Martinroda (draw refunded)
49%
Einheit Rudolstadt (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martinroda at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

Einheit Rudolstadt away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.13 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martinroda attack 1.48 + Einheit Rudolstadt defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.80

Einheit Rudolstadt attack 1.40 + Martinroda defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Martinroda scores more
39%
level
22%
Einheit Rudolstadt scores more
39%

Martinroda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Martinroda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Martinroda vs Einheit Rudolstadt

Einheit Rudolstadt beat Martinroda 2-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on September 29, 2021.

The match was played at Kunstrasen Martinroda in Martinroda.