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Martinroda vs An der Fahner Höhe — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Martinroda
Martinroda
CANC
12:00
An der Fahner Höhe
An der Fahner Höhe
6/6/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 33Sportpark Martinroda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Martinroda37%
×Draw23%
An der Fahner Höhe39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Martinroda
1.59
An der Fahner Höhe
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 37 away

creates per match

Martinroda
1.48
An der Fahner Höhe
1.03

allows per match

Martinroda
2.24
An der Fahner Höhe
1.70

finishing

Martinroda+0.00on par
An der Fahner Höhe+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martinroda ↓

An der Fahner Höhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Martinroda or draw
61%
Martinroda or An der Fahner Höhe
77%
Draw or An der Fahner Höhe
63%

Winning margin

Martinroda wins by 2+
18%
An der Fahner Höhe wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Martinroda 1+ goals
80%
Martinroda 2+ goals
47%
Martinroda 3+ goals
21%
An der Fahner Höhe 1+ goals
81%
An der Fahner Höhe 2+ goals
49%
An der Fahner Höhe 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Martinroda (draw refunded)
49%
An der Fahner Höhe (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martinroda at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

An der Fahner Höhe away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martinroda attack 1.48 + An der Fahner Höhe defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.59

An der Fahner Höhe attack 1.03 + Martinroda defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Martinroda scores more
37%
level
23%
An der Fahner Höhe scores more
39%

An der Fahner Höhe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "An der Fahner Höhe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Martinroda face An der Fahner Höhe (Oberliga - Nordost-Süd)

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd returns with Martinroda hosting An der Fahner Höhe. Match starts June 6, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Martinroda host An der Fahner Höhe at Sportpark Martinroda.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.