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Martinroda vs 1. FC Merseburg — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Martinroda
Martinroda
CANC
12:00
1. FC Merseburg
1. FC Merseburg
4/18/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 27Sportpark Martinroda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Martinroda60%
×Draw19%
1. FC Merseburg21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Martinroda
2.37
1. FC Merseburg
1.33

Martinroda creates 78% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 12 away

creates per match

Martinroda
1.48
1. FC Merseburg
0.42

allows per match

Martinroda
2.24
1. FC Merseburg
3.25

finishing

Martinroda+0.00on par
1. FC Merseburg+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martinroda ↓

1. FC Merseburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Martinroda or draw
79%
Martinroda or 1. FC Merseburg
81%
Draw or 1. FC Merseburg
40%

Winning margin

Martinroda wins by 2+
38%
1. FC Merseburg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Martinroda 1+ goals
91%
Martinroda 2+ goals
68%
Martinroda 3+ goals
42%
1. FC Merseburg 1+ goals
74%
1. FC Merseburg 2+ goals
38%
1. FC Merseburg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Martinroda (draw refunded)
74%
1. FC Merseburg (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martinroda at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

1. FC Merseburg away — creates 0.42, concedes 3.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martinroda attack 1.48 + 1. FC Merseburg defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.37

1. FC Merseburg attack 0.42 + Martinroda defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Martinroda scores more
60%
level
19%
1. FC Merseburg scores more
21%

Martinroda at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Martinroda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Martinroda vs 1. FC Merseburg — Match Preview

Martinroda face 1. FC Merseburg on April 18, 2021 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Süd fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Martinroda host 1. FC Merseburg at Sportpark Martinroda.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.