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Martin Ledesma vs Ovetense FC — Division Intermedia 2018

Martin Ledesma
Martin Ledesma
FT
1 – 2
Ovetense FC
Ovetense FC
9/3/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 27Estadio Enrique Soler (Capiatá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Martin Ledesma43%
×Draw27%
Ovetense FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Martin Ledesma
1.34
Ovetense FC
1.05

Martin Ledesma creates 28% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 30 away

creates per match

Martin Ledesma
0.98
Ovetense FC
0.90

allows per match

Martin Ledesma
1.21
Ovetense FC
1.70

finishing

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par
Ovetense FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martin Ledesma ↓

Ovetense FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Martin Ledesma or draw
71%
Martin Ledesma or Ovetense FC
73%
Draw or Ovetense FC
57%

Winning margin

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+
20%
Ovetense FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals
74%
Martin Ledesma 2+ goals
39%
Martin Ledesma 3+ goals
15%
Ovetense FC 1+ goals
65%
Ovetense FC 2+ goals
28%
Ovetense FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)
60%
Ovetense FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martin Ledesma at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 63 matches

Ovetense FC away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martin Ledesma attack 0.98 + Ovetense FC defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.34

Ovetense FC attack 0.90 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Martin Ledesma scores more
43%
level
27%
Ovetense FC scores more
29%

Martin Ledesma at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Martin Ledesma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Martin Ledesma vs Ovetense FC

Ovetense FC beat Martin Ledesma 2-1 in Division Intermedia on September 3, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Soler (Capiatá).