Martin Ledesma 0–4 Independiente F.b.c.

Martin Ledesma

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Independiente F.b.c.

R. Roa 90+2'

W. Baez 86', 69'

C. Montiel 31'

6/4/2023

Division Intermedia · Round 11Estadio Enrique Soler

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Martin Ledesma36%

×Draw28%

Independiente F.b.c.36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Martin LedesmaExpected goals in this matchIndependiente F.b.c.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.17

Martin Ledesma

1.16

Independiente F.b.c.

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 99 away

1.02

creates per match

1.14

1.21

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Martin Ledesma

1.02

Independiente F.b.c.

1.14

allows per match

Martin Ledesma

1.21

Independiente F.b.c.

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Independiente F.b.c.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martin Ledesma ↓

Independiente F.b.c. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Martin Ledesma or draw

64%

Martin Ledesma or Independiente F.b.c.

72%

Draw or Independiente F.b.c.

64%

Winning margin

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+

15%

Independiente F.b.c. wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals

69%

Martin Ledesma 2+ goals

32%

Martin Ledesma 3+ goals

11%

Independiente F.b.c. 1+ goals

69%

Independiente F.b.c. 2+ goals

33%

Independiente F.b.c. 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)

50%

Independiente F.b.c. (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martin Ledesma at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Independiente F.b.c. away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martin Ledesma attack 1.02 + Independiente F.b.c. defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Independiente F.b.c. attack 1.14 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Martin Ledesma scores more

36%

level

28%

Independiente F.b.c. scores more

36%

Martin Ledesma at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Martin Ledesma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

C. Montiel

58'

J. Valiente

69'

W. Baez

86'

W. Baez

90+2'

R. Roa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff