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Martin Ledesma vs Deportivo Caaguazu — Division Intermedia 2018

Martin Ledesma
Martin Ledesma
FT
2 – 1
Deportivo Caaguazu
Deportivo Caaguazu
6/15/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 15Estadio Enrique Soler (Capiatá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Martin Ledesma48%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Caaguazu25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Martin Ledesma
1.46
Deportivo Caaguazu
0.97

Martin Ledesma creates 51% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 30 away

creates per match

Martin Ledesma
0.98
Deportivo Caaguazu
0.73

allows per match

Martin Ledesma
1.21
Deportivo Caaguazu
1.93

finishing

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par
Deportivo Caaguazu+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martin Ledesma ↓

Deportivo Caaguazu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Martin Ledesma or draw
75%
Martin Ledesma or Deportivo Caaguazu
74%
Draw or Deportivo Caaguazu
52%

Winning margin

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+
24%
Deportivo Caaguazu wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals
77%
Martin Ledesma 2+ goals
43%
Martin Ledesma 3+ goals
18%
Deportivo Caaguazu 1+ goals
62%
Deportivo Caaguazu 2+ goals
25%
Deportivo Caaguazu 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)
66%
Deportivo Caaguazu (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martin Ledesma at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 63 matches

Deportivo Caaguazu away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martin Ledesma attack 0.98 + Deportivo Caaguazu defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.46

Deportivo Caaguazu attack 0.73 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Martin Ledesma scores more
48%
level
26%
Deportivo Caaguazu scores more
25%

Martin Ledesma at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Martin Ledesma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Martin Ledesma vs Deportivo Caaguazu

Martin Ledesma beat Deportivo Caaguazu 2-1 in Division Intermedia on June 15, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Soler (Capiatá).