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Martin Ledesma vs Atlético Colegiales — Division Intermedia 2018

Martin Ledesma
Martin Ledesma
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Colegiales
Atlético Colegiales
8/12/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 21Estadio Enrique Soler

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Martin Ledesma47%
×Draw26%
Atlético Colegiales27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Martin Ledesma
1.51
Atlético Colegiales
1.09

Martin Ledesma creates 39% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 44 away

creates per match

Martin Ledesma
0.98
Atlético Colegiales
0.98

allows per match

Martin Ledesma
1.21
Atlético Colegiales
2.05

finishing

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par
Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martin Ledesma ↓

Atlético Colegiales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Martin Ledesma or draw
73%
Martin Ledesma or Atlético Colegiales
74%
Draw or Atlético Colegiales
53%

Winning margin

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+
23%
Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals
78%
Martin Ledesma 2+ goals
44%
Martin Ledesma 3+ goals
19%
Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)
63%
Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martin Ledesma at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 63 matches

Atlético Colegiales away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martin Ledesma attack 0.98 + Atlético Colegiales defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.51

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.98 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Martin Ledesma scores more
47%
level
26%
Atlético Colegiales scores more
27%

Martin Ledesma at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Martin Ledesma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Martin Ledesma vs Atlético Colegiales

Martin Ledesma and Atlético Colegiales drew 0-0 in Division Intermedia on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Soler in Capiatá.