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Martigues vs Paris FC — Ligue 2 2018

Martigues
Martigues
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Paris FC
Paris FC
5/2/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 33Stade Francis Turcan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Martigues26%
×Draw28%
Paris FC46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Martigues
0.92
Paris FC
1.32

Paris FC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 128 away

creates per match

Martigues
0.76
Paris FC
1.05

allows per match

Martigues
1.59
Paris FC
1.08

finishing

Martigues+0.00on par
Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martigues ↓

Paris FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Martigues or draw
54%
Martigues or Paris FC
72%
Draw or Paris FC
74%

Winning margin

Martigues wins by 2+
9%
Paris FC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Martigues 1+ goals
60%
Martigues 2+ goals
23%
Martigues 3+ goals
7%
Paris FC 1+ goals
73%
Paris FC 2+ goals
38%
Paris FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Martigues (draw refunded)
36%
Paris FC (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martigues at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.08 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martigues attack 0.76 + Paris FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.92

Paris FC attack 1.05 + Martigues defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Martigues scores more
26%
level
28%
Paris FC scores more
46%

Paris FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Martigues vs Paris FC

Martigues and Paris FC drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on May 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Francis Turcan in Martigues.