Martigues 0–3 Caen: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Martigues

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Caen

10/29/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 11Stade Jean Laville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Martigues32%

×Draw27%

Caen41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MartiguesExpected goals in this matchCaen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.35

Martigues

1.15

Caen

1.35

Caen creates 17% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 107 away

0.76

creates per match

1.10

1.59

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Martigues

0.76

Caen

1.10

allows per match

Martigues

1.59

Caen

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Martigues+0.00on par

Caen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martigues ↓

Caen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Martigues or draw

59%

Martigues or Caen

73%

Draw or Caen

68%

Winning margin

Martigues wins by 2+

13%

Caen wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Martigues 1+ goals

68%

Martigues 2+ goals

32%

Martigues 3+ goals

11%

Caen 1+ goals

74%

Caen 2+ goals

39%

Caen 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Martigues (draw refunded)

44%

Caen (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martigues at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Caen away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.53 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martigues attack 0.76 + Caen defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.15

Caen attack 1.10 + Martigues defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Martigues scores more

32%

level

27%

Caen scores more

41%

Caen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Caen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff