Martigues 0–1 Bastia: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Martigues

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bastia

C. Rodrigues 50'

8/30/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 3Orange Vélodrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Martigues30%

×Draw28%

Bastia43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MartiguesExpected goals in this matchBastia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.31

Martigues

1.04

Bastia

1.31

Bastia creates 26% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 91 away

0.76

creates per match

1.03

1.59

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Martigues

0.76

Bastia

1.03

allows per match

Martigues

1.59

Bastia

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Martigues+0.00on par

Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martigues ↓

Bastia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Martigues or draw

57%

Martigues or Bastia

72%

Draw or Bastia

70%

Winning margin

Martigues wins by 2+

11%

Bastia wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Martigues 1+ goals

65%

Martigues 2+ goals

28%

Martigues 3+ goals

9%

Bastia 1+ goals

73%

Bastia 2+ goals

38%

Bastia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Martigues (draw refunded)

41%

Bastia (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martigues at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martigues attack 0.76 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Bastia attack 1.03 + Martigues defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Martigues scores more

30%

level

28%

Bastia scores more

43%

Bastia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

M. Robin

Martigues · M

7.9

Match Events

31'

I. Zouaoui← S. Belloumou

41'

Steve Solvet

42'

Tom Ducrocq

50'

C. Rodrigues

61'

J. Maggiotti← C. Vincent

61'

74'

74'

75'

83'

86'

M. Boumaaoui← C. Rodrigues

90+3'

Dylan Tavares← A. Boutrah

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MartiguesBastia

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots9

8Corners3

20Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots9

1On Target4

6Off Target5

4Blocked0

6Inside Box4

5Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

293Total Passes362

207Accurate Passes270

71%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

20Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Martigues vs Bastia

Bastia beat Martigues 1-0 in Ligue 2 on August 30, 2024.

Goals: C. Rodrigues (50').

Bastia controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Orange Vélodrome in Marseille.

Martigues vs Bastia — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Martigues vs Bastia