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Martigues vs Amiens — Ligue 2 2018

Martigues
Martigues
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Amiens
Amiens
1/24/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 20Stade Francis Turcan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Martigues33%
×Draw27%
Amiens40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Martigues
1.14
Amiens
1.29

Amiens creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 111 away

creates per match

Martigues
0.76
Amiens
0.98

allows per match

Martigues
1.59
Amiens
1.52

finishing

Martigues+0.00on par
Amiens+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martigues ↓

Amiens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Martigues or draw
60%
Martigues or Amiens
73%
Draw or Amiens
67%

Winning margin

Martigues wins by 2+
13%
Amiens wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Martigues 1+ goals
68%
Martigues 2+ goals
32%
Martigues 3+ goals
11%
Amiens 1+ goals
72%
Amiens 2+ goals
37%
Amiens 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Martigues (draw refunded)
45%
Amiens (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martigues at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Amiens away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.52 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martigues attack 0.76 + Amiens defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.14

Amiens attack 0.98 + Martigues defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Martigues scores more
33%
level
27%
Amiens scores more
40%

Amiens at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Amiens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Martigues vs Amiens

Martigues beat Amiens 3-0 in Ligue 2 on January 24, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Francis Turcan in Martigues.