Martigny Sports 2–2 Terre Sainte: Result & Stats

Martigny Sports

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Terre Sainte

9/10/2022

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Terrain synthétique d'Octodure

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Martigny Sports40%

×Draw23%

Terre Sainte37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Martigny SportsExpected goals in this matchTerre Sainte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.68

Martigny Sports

1.76

Terre Sainte

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 57 away

1.36

creates per match

1.23

2.13

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Martigny Sports

1.36

Terre Sainte

1.23

allows per match

Martigny Sports

2.13

Terre Sainte

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Martigny Sports+0.00on par

Terre Sainte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martigny Sports ↓

Terre Sainte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Martigny Sports or draw

63%

Martigny Sports or Terre Sainte

77%

Draw or Terre Sainte

60%

Winning margin

Martigny Sports wins by 2+

21%

Terre Sainte wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Martigny Sports 1+ goals

83%

Martigny Sports 2+ goals

52%

Martigny Sports 3+ goals

26%

Terre Sainte 1+ goals

81%

Terre Sainte 2+ goals

50%

Terre Sainte 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Martigny Sports (draw refunded)

52%

Terre Sainte (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martigny Sports at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.13 · 56 matches

Terre Sainte away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martigny Sports attack 1.36 + Terre Sainte defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.76

Terre Sainte attack 1.23 + Martigny Sports defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Martigny Sports scores more

40%

level

23%

Terre Sainte scores more

37%

Martigny Sports at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Martigny Sports will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff