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Martfűi LSE vs Kecskeméti TE II — NB III - Southeast 2023

Martfűi LSE
Martfűi LSE
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 0
Kecskeméti TE II
Kecskeméti TE II
5/26/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 30Martfű LSE Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Martfűi LSE34%
×Draw24%
Kecskeméti TE II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Martfűi LSE
1.48
Kecskeméti TE II
1.67

Kecskeméti TE II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 30 away

creates per match

Martfűi LSE
1.34
Kecskeméti TE II
1.10

allows per match

Martfűi LSE
2.23
Kecskeméti TE II
1.63

finishing

Martfűi LSE+0.00on par
Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martfűi LSE ↓

Kecskeméti TE II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Martfűi LSE or draw
58%
Martfűi LSE or Kecskeméti TE II
76%
Draw or Kecskeméti TE II
66%

Winning margin

Martfűi LSE wins by 2+
16%
Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Martfűi LSE 1+ goals
77%
Martfűi LSE 2+ goals
43%
Martfűi LSE 3+ goals
19%
Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals
81%
Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals
50%
Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Martfűi LSE (draw refunded)
45%
Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martfűi LSE at home — creates 1.34, concedes 2.23 · 44 matches

Kecskeméti TE II away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martfűi LSE attack 1.34 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.10 + Martfűi LSE defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Martfűi LSE scores more
34%
level
24%
Kecskeméti TE II scores more
42%

Kecskeméti TE II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kecskeméti TE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Martfűi LSE vs Kecskeméti TE II

Kecskeméti TE II beat Martfűi LSE 5-1 in NB III - Southeast on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Martfű LSE Sporttelep in Martfű.