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Marsonia vs Zrinski Jurjevac — League #217 2026

Marsonia
Marsonia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zrinski Jurjevac
Zrinski Jurjevac
11/13/2021League #217League #217 · East - 15Gradski Stadion uz Savu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Marsonia16%
×Draw28%
Zrinski Jurjevac57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marsonia
0.58
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.38

Zrinski Jurjevac creates 138% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Marsonia
0.67
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.75

allows per match

Marsonia
1.00
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.50

finishing

Marsonia+0.00on par
Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marsonia ↓

Zrinski Jurjevac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–119%
0–213%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Marsonia or draw
43%
Marsonia or Zrinski Jurjevac
72%
Draw or Zrinski Jurjevac
84%

Winning margin

Marsonia wins by 2+
4%
Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Marsonia 1+ goals
44%
Marsonia 2+ goals
12%
Marsonia 3+ goals
2%
Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals
75%
Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals
40%
Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Marsonia (draw refunded)
22%
Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marsonia at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Zrinski Jurjevac away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marsonia attack 0.67 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.58

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 1.75 + Marsonia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Marsonia scores more
16%
level
28%
Zrinski Jurjevac scores more
57%

Zrinski Jurjevac at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zrinski Jurjevac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marsonia vs Zrinski Jurjevac

Zrinski Jurjevac beat Marsonia 1-0 in League #217 on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion uz Savu in Slavonski Brod.