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Marsonia vs Solin — Second NL 2022

Marsonia
Marsonia
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Solin
Solin
2/22/2025Second NLSecond NL · Round 16ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Marsonia40%
×Draw24%
Solin36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marsonia
1.58
Solin
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Marsonia
1.58
Solin
1.27

allows per match

Marsonia
1.69
Solin
1.57

finishing

Marsonia+0.00on par
Solin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marsonia ↓

Solin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Marsonia or draw
64%
Marsonia or Solin
76%
Draw or Solin
60%

Winning margin

Marsonia wins by 2+
20%
Solin wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Marsonia 1+ goals
79%
Marsonia 2+ goals
47%
Marsonia 3+ goals
21%
Solin 1+ goals
77%
Solin 2+ goals
43%
Solin 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Marsonia (draw refunded)
53%
Solin (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marsonia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

Solin away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marsonia attack 1.58 + Solin defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Solin attack 1.27 + Marsonia defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Marsonia scores more
40%
level
24%
Solin scores more
36%

Marsonia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Marsonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marsonia vs Solin

Marsonia beat Solin 3-2 in Second NL on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida in Slavonski Brod.