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Marsonia vs Segesta Sisak — Second NL 2022

Marsonia
Marsonia
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Segesta Sisak
Segesta Sisak
I. Didovic 54'
M. Kopic 88'
K. Kovacevic 51'
V. Simic 16'
3/29/2025Second NLSecond NL · Round 21ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Marsonia44%
×Draw23%
Segesta Sisak33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marsonia
1.75
Segesta Sisak
1.48

Marsonia creates 18% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Marsonia
1.58
Segesta Sisak
1.27

allows per match

Marsonia
1.69
Segesta Sisak
1.93

finishing

Marsonia+0.00on par
Segesta Sisak+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marsonia ↓

Segesta Sisak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Marsonia or draw
67%
Marsonia or Segesta Sisak
77%
Draw or Segesta Sisak
56%

Winning margin

Marsonia wins by 2+
23%
Segesta Sisak wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Marsonia 1+ goals
83%
Marsonia 2+ goals
52%
Marsonia 3+ goals
25%
Segesta Sisak 1+ goals
77%
Segesta Sisak 2+ goals
43%
Segesta Sisak 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Marsonia (draw refunded)
57%
Segesta Sisak (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marsonia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

Segesta Sisak away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marsonia attack 1.58 + Segesta Sisak defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.75

Segesta Sisak attack 1.27 + Marsonia defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Marsonia scores more
44%
level
23%
Segesta Sisak scores more
33%

Marsonia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Marsonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
V. Simic
51'
K. Kovacevic
54'
I. Didovic
88'
M. Kopic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marsonia vs Segesta Sisak

Segesta Sisak beat Marsonia 3-1 in Second NL on March 29, 2025.

Goals: V. Simic (16'), K. Kovacevic (51'), I. Didovic (54'), M. Kopic (88').

The match was played at ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida in Slavonski Brod.