Marsonia 0–1 Mladost Ždralovi: Result & Stats

Marsonia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mladost Ždralovi

3/18/2023

Second NL · Round 19ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Marsonia32%

×Draw24%

Mladost Ždralovi43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarsoniaExpected goals in this matchMladost Ždralovi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.59

Marsonia

1.33

Mladost Ždralovi

1.59

Mladost Ždralovi creates 20% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

1.58

creates per match

1.50

1.69

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Marsonia

1.58

Mladost Ždralovi

1.50

allows per match

Marsonia

1.69

Mladost Ždralovi

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marsonia+0.00on par

Mladost Ždralovi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marsonia ↓

Mladost Ždralovi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Marsonia or draw

57%

Marsonia or Mladost Ždralovi

76%

Draw or Mladost Ždralovi

68%

Winning margin

Marsonia wins by 2+

14%

Mladost Ždralovi wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Marsonia 1+ goals

74%

Marsonia 2+ goals

38%

Marsonia 3+ goals

15%

Mladost Ždralovi 1+ goals

80%

Mladost Ždralovi 2+ goals

47%

Mladost Ždralovi 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Marsonia (draw refunded)

42%

Mladost Ždralovi (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marsonia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

Mladost Ždralovi away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marsonia attack 1.58 + Mladost Ždralovi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.33

Mladost Ždralovi attack 1.50 + Marsonia defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Marsonia scores more

32%

level

24%

Mladost Ždralovi scores more

43%

Mladost Ždralovi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mladost Ždralovi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff