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Marsonia vs Kustosija — Second NL 2022

Marsonia
Marsonia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kustosija
Kustosija
2/24/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 16ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Marsonia31%
×Draw23%
Kustosija45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marsonia
1.41
Kustosija
1.73

Kustosija creates 23% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Marsonia
1.58
Kustosija
1.78

allows per match

Marsonia
1.69
Kustosija
1.24

finishing

Marsonia+0.00on par
Kustosija+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marsonia ↓

Kustosija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Marsonia or draw
55%
Marsonia or Kustosija
77%
Draw or Kustosija
69%

Winning margin

Marsonia wins by 2+
14%
Kustosija wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Marsonia 1+ goals
76%
Marsonia 2+ goals
41%
Marsonia 3+ goals
17%
Kustosija 1+ goals
82%
Kustosija 2+ goals
52%
Kustosija 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Marsonia (draw refunded)
41%
Kustosija (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marsonia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

Kustosija away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marsonia attack 1.58 + Kustosija defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.41

Kustosija attack 1.78 + Marsonia defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Marsonia scores more
31%
level
23%
Kustosija scores more
45%

Kustosija at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kustosija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marsonia vs Kustosija

Marsonia and Kustosija drew 1-1 in Second NL on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida in Slavonski Brod.