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Marsonia vs Jadran LP — Second NL 2022

Marsonia
Marsonia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jadran LP
Jadran LP
A. Ivandic 24'
N. Cepo 90+3'
10/14/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 9ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Marsonia31%
×Draw25%
Jadran LP44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marsonia
1.26
Jadran LP
1.53

Jadran LP creates 21% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

creates per match

Marsonia
1.58
Jadran LP
1.38

allows per match

Marsonia
1.69
Jadran LP
0.93

finishing

Marsonia+0.00on par
Jadran LP+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marsonia ↓

Jadran LP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Marsonia or draw
56%
Marsonia or Jadran LP
75%
Draw or Jadran LP
69%

Winning margin

Marsonia wins by 2+
13%
Jadran LP wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Marsonia 1+ goals
72%
Marsonia 2+ goals
36%
Marsonia 3+ goals
13%
Jadran LP 1+ goals
78%
Jadran LP 2+ goals
45%
Jadran LP 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Marsonia (draw refunded)
42%
Jadran LP (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marsonia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

Jadran LP away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marsonia attack 1.58 + Jadran LP defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.26

Jadran LP attack 1.38 + Marsonia defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Marsonia scores more
31%
level
25%
Jadran LP scores more
44%

Jadran LP at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
A. Ivandic
90+3'
N. Cepo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marsonia vs Jadran LP

Marsonia and Jadran LP drew 1-1 in Second NL on October 14, 2023.

Goals: A. Ivandic (24'), N. Cepo (90+3').

The match was played at ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida in Slavonski Brod.