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Marsonia vs Hrvace — Second NL 2022

Marsonia
Marsonia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hrvace
Hrvace
S. Mahmutovic 59', 53'
M. Vrdoljak 3'
4/30/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 25ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Marsonia40%
×Draw23%
Hrvace37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marsonia
1.66
Hrvace
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Marsonia
1.58
Hrvace
1.49

allows per match

Marsonia
1.69
Hrvace
1.73

finishing

Marsonia+0.00on par
Hrvace+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marsonia ↓

Hrvace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Marsonia or draw
63%
Marsonia or Hrvace
77%
Draw or Hrvace
60%

Winning margin

Marsonia wins by 2+
20%
Hrvace wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Marsonia 1+ goals
81%
Marsonia 2+ goals
49%
Marsonia 3+ goals
23%
Hrvace 1+ goals
80%
Hrvace 2+ goals
47%
Hrvace 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Marsonia (draw refunded)
52%
Hrvace (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marsonia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

Hrvace away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marsonia attack 1.58 + Hrvace defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.66

Hrvace attack 1.49 + Marsonia defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Marsonia scores more
40%
level
23%
Hrvace scores more
37%

Marsonia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Marsonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
M. Vrdoljak
53'
S. Mahmutovic
59'
S. Mahmutovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Marsonia 3–0 Hrvace

Marsonia beat Hrvace 3-0 in Second NL on April 30, 2023.

Goals: M. Vrdoljak (3'), S. Mahmutovic (53', 59').

The match was played at ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida in Slavonski Brod.