Marsonia 2–1 Belišće: Result & Stats | Second NL

Marsonia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Belišće

3/4/2023

Second NL · Round 17ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Marsonia52%

×Draw22%

Belišće27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarsoniaExpected goals in this matchBelišće

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.38

Marsonia

1.99

Belišće

1.38

Marsonia creates 44% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

1.58

creates per match

1.07

1.69

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Marsonia

1.58

Belišće

1.07

allows per match

Marsonia

1.69

Belišće

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marsonia+0.00on par

Belišće+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marsonia ↓

Belišće →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Marsonia or draw

73%

Marsonia or Belišće

78%

Draw or Belišće

48%

Winning margin

Marsonia wins by 2+

30%

Belišće wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Marsonia 1+ goals

86%

Marsonia 2+ goals

59%

Marsonia 3+ goals

32%

Belišće 1+ goals

75%

Belišće 2+ goals

40%

Belišće 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Marsonia (draw refunded)

66%

Belišće (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marsonia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

Belišće away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marsonia attack 1.58 + Belišće defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.99

Belišće attack 1.07 + Marsonia defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Marsonia scores more

52%

level

22%

Belišće scores more

27%

Marsonia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Marsonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff