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Marseille W vs Stade de Reims W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Marseille W
Marseille W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Stade de Reims W
Stade de Reims W
9/14/2019Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 3Stade Roger Lebert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Marseille W28%
×Draw22%
Stade de Reims W50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marseille W
1.39
Stade de Reims W
1.91

Stade de Reims W creates 37% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 65 away

creates per match

Marseille W
0.82
Stade de Reims W
1.31

allows per match

Marseille W
2.50
Stade de Reims W
1.95

finishing

Marseille W+0.00on par
Stade de Reims W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marseille W ↓

Stade de Reims W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Marseille W or draw
50%
Marseille W or Stade de Reims W
78%
Draw or Stade de Reims W
72%

Winning margin

Marseille W wins by 2+
12%
Stade de Reims W wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Marseille W 1+ goals
75%
Marseille W 2+ goals
40%
Marseille W 3+ goals
16%
Stade de Reims W 1+ goals
85%
Stade de Reims W 2+ goals
57%
Stade de Reims W 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Marseille W (draw refunded)
36%
Stade de Reims W (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marseille W at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

Stade de Reims W away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.95 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marseille W attack 0.82 + Stade de Reims W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.39

Stade de Reims W attack 1.31 + Marseille W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Marseille W scores more
28%
level
22%
Stade de Reims W scores more
50%

Stade de Reims W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stade de Reims W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Feminine Division 1: Marseille W 0–3 Stade de Reims W

Stade de Reims W beat Marseille W 3-0 in Feminine Division 1 on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Roger Lebert in Marseille.