Marseille W 1–3 Soyaux W: Result & Stats

Marseille W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Soyaux W

C. Caputo 29'

S. Cambot 90+4', 66'

A. Rouge 61'

12/7/2019

Feminine Division 1 · Round 11Stade Paul Le Cesne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Marseille W33%

×Draw23%

Soyaux W44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marseille WExpected goals in this matchSoyaux W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.77

Marseille W

1.52

Soyaux W

1.77

Soyaux W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 52 away

0.80

creates per match

0.79

2.75

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Marseille W

0.80

Soyaux W

0.79

allows per match

Marseille W

2.75

Soyaux W

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marseille W+0.00on par

Soyaux W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marseille W ↓

Soyaux W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Marseille W or draw

56%

Marseille W or Soyaux W

77%

Draw or Soyaux W

67%

Winning margin

Marseille W wins by 2+

16%

Soyaux W wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Marseille W 1+ goals

78%

Marseille W 2+ goals

45%

Marseille W 3+ goals

20%

Soyaux W 1+ goals

83%

Soyaux W 2+ goals

53%

Soyaux W 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Marseille W (draw refunded)

43%

Soyaux W (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marseille W at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.75 · 20 matches

Soyaux W away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.23 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marseille W attack 0.80 + Soyaux W defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.52

Soyaux W attack 0.79 + Marseille W defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Marseille W scores more

33%

level

23%

Soyaux W scores more

44%

Soyaux W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Soyaux W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

29'

35'

57'

61'

65'

A. Conesa← S. Altunkulak

66'

S. Cambot

67'

M. Salomon← S. Huchet

78'

A. Da Costa← A. Lahmari

90+4'

S. Cambot

Marseille

Soyaux

30

Munich

14

Couturier

19

▼

3

22

7

10

▼

Lahmari

20

Cazeau

9

⚽2

12

27

1

27

▼

5

22

20

6

8

2

▼

Altunkula

29

Sumo

11

⚽

Caputo

12

Cardia

Manager: C. Parra

65'▲A. Conesa←▼S. Altunkulak

67'▲M. Salomon←▼S. Huchet

Marseille W substitutes

18Conesa9Salomon4Antoine14Perret17Lamarque30Fiordaliso

Manager: S. Joseph

57'▲A. Rouge←▼H. Cissoko

78'▲A. Da Costa←▼A. Lahmari

Soyaux W substitutes

18Rouge8Costa1Bottega34Moreira