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Marseille W vs Paris FC W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Marseille W
Marseille W
CANC
14:00
Paris FC W
Paris FC W
5/16/2020Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 21Stade Roger Lebert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Marseille W17%
×Draw20%
Paris FC W63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marseille W
1.03
Paris FC W
2.17

Paris FC W creates 111% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 87 away

creates per match

Marseille W
0.92
Paris FC W
1.93

allows per match

Marseille W
2.40
Paris FC W
1.14

finishing

Marseille W+0.00on par
Paris FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marseille W ↓

Paris FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Marseille W or draw
37%
Marseille W or Paris FC W
80%
Draw or Paris FC W
83%

Winning margin

Marseille W wins by 2+
6%
Paris FC W wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Marseille W 1+ goals
64%
Marseille W 2+ goals
28%
Marseille W 3+ goals
9%
Paris FC W 1+ goals
89%
Paris FC W 2+ goals
64%
Paris FC W 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Marseille W (draw refunded)
21%
Paris FC W (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marseille W at home — creates 0.92, concedes 2.40 · 25 matches

Paris FC W away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.14 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marseille W attack 0.92 + Paris FC W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Paris FC W attack 1.93 + Marseille W defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Marseille W scores more
17%
level
20%
Paris FC W scores more
63%

Paris FC W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Paris FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Marseille W host Paris FC W

May 16, 2020: Marseille W take on Paris FC W in Feminine Division 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Marseille W host Paris FC W at Stade Roger Lebert.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.