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Marseille vs Metz — Ligue 1 2018

Marseille
Marseille
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Metz
Metz
2/9/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 21Orange Vélodrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Marseille63%
×Draw20%
Metz17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marseille
2.14
Metz
1.03

Marseille creates 108% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 18 away

creates per match

Marseille
2.03
Metz
0.82

allows per match

Marseille
1.25
Metz
2.26

finishing

Marseille+0.41scores more
Metz+0.18scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marseille ↓

Metz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Marseille or draw
83%
Marseille or Metz
80%
Draw or Metz
37%

Winning margin

Marseille wins by 2+
39%
Metz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Marseille 1+ goals
88%
Marseille 2+ goals
63%
Marseille 3+ goals
36%
Metz 1+ goals
64%
Metz 2+ goals
28%
Metz 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Marseille (draw refunded)
78%
Metz (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marseille at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.25 · 25 matches

Metz away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.26 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marseille attack 2.03 + Metz defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.14

Metz attack 0.82 + Marseille defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Marseille scores more
63%
level
20%
Metz scores more
17%

Marseille at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Marseille will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marseille vs Metz

Marseille and Metz drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on February 9, 2024.

The match was played at Orange Vélodrome in Marseille.