Marseille 2–1 FC Basel 1893: Result & Stats

Marseille

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FC Basel 1893

A. Milik 68', 19' (pen)

S.Esposito 79'

3/10/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 16Stade Orange Vélodrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Marseille45%

×Draw27%

FC Basel 189328%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarseilleExpected goals in this matchFC Basel 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.04

Marseille

1.41

FC Basel 1893

1.04

Marseille creates 36% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

1.75

creates per match

1.33

0.75

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Marseille

1.75

FC Basel 1893

1.33

allows per match

Marseille

0.75

FC Basel 1893

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marseille+0.00on par

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marseille ↓

FC Basel 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Marseille or draw

72%

Marseille or FC Basel 1893

73%

Draw or FC Basel 1893

55%

Winning margin

Marseille wins by 2+

22%

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Marseille 1+ goals

76%

Marseille 2+ goals

41%

Marseille 3+ goals

17%

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

65%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

28%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Marseille (draw refunded)

62%

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marseille at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marseille attack 1.75 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.41

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.33 + Marseille defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Marseille scores more

45%

level

27%

FC Basel 1893 scores more

28%

Marseille at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Marseille will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Milik

Marseille · F

8.2

Match Events

19'

A. MilikPenalty

43'

Dimitri Payet

68'

A. Milik

70'

D. Males← F. Chalov

70'

Joelson Fernandes← L. Millar

70'

W. Burger← T. Xhaka

78'

Luan Peres← S. Kolašinac

78'

A. Harit← D. Payet

79'

S.Esposito↳ W. Burger

81'

Wouter Burger

90+2'

Darian Males

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MarseilleFC

Overview

68%Possession32%

20Total Shots8

5Corners2

11Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots8

5On Target2

9Off Target3

6Blocked3

13Inside Box4

7Outside Box4

Passing

68%Possession32%

758Total Passes350

688Accurate Passes272

91%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3