Marseille 5–2 Angers: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Marseille

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Angers

C. Ünder 85'

A. Milik 78', 70', 18'

Gerson 21'

N. Bentaleb 11'

A. Fulgini 8'

2/4/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 23Stade Orange Vélodrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Marseille59%

×Draw22%

Angers19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarseilleExpected goals in this matchAngers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.01

Marseille

1.95

Angers

1.01

Marseille creates 93% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 28 away

2.08

creates per match

0.82

1.20

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Marseille

2.08

Angers

0.82

allows per match

Marseille

1.20

Angers

1.81

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Marseille+0.15scores more

Angers-0.18scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marseille ↓

Angers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Marseille or draw

81%

Marseille or Angers

78%

Draw or Angers

41%

Winning margin

Marseille wins by 2+

35%

Angers wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Marseille 1+ goals

86%

Marseille 2+ goals

58%

Marseille 3+ goals

31%

Angers 1+ goals

64%

Angers 2+ goals

27%

Angers 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Marseille (draw refunded)

76%

Angers (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marseille at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

Angers away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.81 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marseille attack 2.08 + Angers defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.95

Angers attack 0.82 + Marseille defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Marseille scores more

59%

level

22%

Angers scores more

19%

Marseille at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Marseille will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Milik

Marseille · F

9.2

Match Events

8'

A. Fulgini

11'

N. Bentaleb↳ A. Fulgini

18'

A. Milik↳ M. Guendouzi

21'

Gerson↳ Pol Lirola

53'

Jimmy Cabot

56'

Mathias Lage← J. Cabot

64'

C. Ünder← C. Bakambu

64'

Luan Peres← S. Kolašinac

64'

R. Thomas← I. Traoré

66'

V. Rongier← B. Kamara

70'

76'

78'

82'

85'

89'

90+2'

90+2'

P. Capelle← N. Bentaleb

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MarseilleAngers

Overview

60%Possession40%

18Total Shots4

6Corners2

13Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots4

8On Target2

7Off Target1

3Blocked1

12Inside Box2

6Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

577Total Passes398

509Accurate Passes334

88%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls13

0Yellow Cards3

5Offsides6

Match Recap: Marseille vs Angers

Marseille beat Angers 5-2 in Ligue 1 on February 4, 2022.

Goals: A. Fulgini (8'), N. Bentaleb (11'), A. Milik (18', 70', 78'), Gerson (21'), C. Ünder (85').

Marseille controlled possession (60%) and registered 18 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stade Orange Vélodrome in Marseille.

Marseille vs Angers — Ligue 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Marseille vs Angers