Marsaxlokk 3–0 Victoria Wanderers: Result & Stats

Marsaxlokk

3 – 0

Victoria Wanderers

12/27/2020

FA Trophy · Preliminary RoundVictor Tedesco Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Marsaxlokk65%

×Draw18%

Victoria Wanderers17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarsaxlokkExpected goals in this matchVictoria Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.17

Marsaxlokk

2.42

Victoria Wanderers

1.17

Marsaxlokk creates 107% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.83

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Marsaxlokk

1.83

Victoria Wanderers

1.00

allows per match

Marsaxlokk

1.33

Victoria Wanderers

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marsaxlokk+0.00on par

Victoria Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marsaxlokk ↓

Victoria Wanderers →

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Marsaxlokk or draw

83%

Marsaxlokk or Victoria Wanderers

82%

Draw or Victoria Wanderers

35%

Winning margin

Marsaxlokk wins by 2+

42%

Victoria Wanderers wins by 2+

Team goals

Marsaxlokk 1+ goals

91%

Marsaxlokk 2+ goals

69%

Marsaxlokk 3+ goals

43%

Victoria Wanderers 1+ goals

69%

Victoria Wanderers 2+ goals

33%

Victoria Wanderers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Marsaxlokk (draw refunded)

79%

Victoria Wanderers (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Marsaxlokk at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Victoria Wanderers away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Marsaxlokk attack 1.83 + Victoria Wanderers defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Victoria Wanderers attack 1.00 + Marsaxlokk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Marsaxlokk scores more

65%

level

18%

Victoria Wanderers scores more

17%

Marsaxlokk at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Marsaxlokk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff