Marsaxlokk 3–0 Swieqi United: Result & Stats

Marsaxlokk

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Swieqi United

2/6/2024

FA Trophy · Round of 16MFA Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Marsaxlokk64%

×Draw18%

Swieqi United18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarsaxlokkExpected goals in this matchSwieqi United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.33

Marsaxlokk

2.58

Swieqi United

1.33

Marsaxlokk creates 94% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.83

creates per match

1.33

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Marsaxlokk

1.83

Swieqi United

1.33

allows per match

Marsaxlokk

1.33

Swieqi United

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marsaxlokk+0.00on par

Swieqi United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marsaxlokk ↓

Swieqi United →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Marsaxlokk or draw

82%

Marsaxlokk or Swieqi United

82%

Draw or Swieqi United

36%

Winning margin

Marsaxlokk wins by 2+

43%

Swieqi United wins by 2+

Team goals

Marsaxlokk 1+ goals

92%

Marsaxlokk 2+ goals

72%

Marsaxlokk 3+ goals

47%

Swieqi United 1+ goals

74%

Swieqi United 2+ goals

38%

Swieqi United 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Marsaxlokk (draw refunded)

78%

Swieqi United (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Marsaxlokk at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Swieqi United away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Marsaxlokk attack 1.83 + Swieqi United defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.58

Swieqi United attack 1.33 + Marsaxlokk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Marsaxlokk scores more

64%

level

18%

Swieqi United scores more

18%

Marsaxlokk at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Marsaxlokk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff