Marsaxlokk 2–1 Sliema Wanderers: Result & Stats

Marsaxlokk

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sliema Wanderers

Alex Tanque 77'

L. Aguirre 60'

Alex Tanque 15' (OG)

4/19/2025

League #393 · Closing - 2nd Phase - 3Ta'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Marsaxlokk35%

×Draw28%

Sliema Wanderers37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarsaxlokkExpected goals in this matchSliema Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.21

Marsaxlokk

1.17

Sliema Wanderers

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

1.33

creates per match

1.28

1.14

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Marsaxlokk

1.33

Sliema Wanderers

1.28

allows per match

Marsaxlokk

1.14

Sliema Wanderers

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marsaxlokk+0.00on par

Sliema Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marsaxlokk ↓

Sliema Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Marsaxlokk or draw

63%

Marsaxlokk or Sliema Wanderers

72%

Draw or Sliema Wanderers

65%

Winning margin

Marsaxlokk wins by 2+

15%

Sliema Wanderers wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Marsaxlokk 1+ goals

69%

Marsaxlokk 2+ goals

33%

Marsaxlokk 3+ goals

11%

Sliema Wanderers 1+ goals

70%

Sliema Wanderers 2+ goals

34%

Sliema Wanderers 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Marsaxlokk (draw refunded)

49%

Sliema Wanderers (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marsaxlokk at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Sliema Wanderers away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marsaxlokk attack 1.33 + Sliema Wanderers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sliema Wanderers attack 1.28 + Marsaxlokk defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Marsaxlokk scores more

35%

level

28%

Sliema Wanderers scores more

37%

Sliema Wanderers at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sliema Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Alex TanqueOwn goal

38'

Murilo Henrique

60'

L. Aguirre

61'

L. Aguirre

74'

K. Nwoko← M. Awad

74'

M. Priadun← V. Plut

74'

N. Frendo← A. Overend

77'

Alex Tanque

80'

S. Kone← Murilo Freire

82'

E. Peña← R. Scicluna

87'

S. Kone

88'

Haraan Gonçalves← S. Pisani

90+2'

M. Adamec← Yuri

90+2'

N. Rađen← U. Arias

Marsaxlokk

Sliema

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽🥅

Manager: E. Potenza

82'▲E. Peña←▼R. Scicluna

90+2'▲M. Adamec←▼Yuri

90+2'▲N. Rađen←▼U. Arias

Marsaxlokk substitutes

PeñaAdamecRađenBarbaraBonniciTorresMarchettiBorgGhioManiscalcoPortelli

Manager: P. Zammit

74'▲K. Nwoko←▼M. Awad

74'▲M. Priadun←▼V. Plut

74'▲N. Frendo←▼A. Overend

80'▲S. Kone←▼Murilo Freire

88'▲Haraan Gonçalves←▼S. Pisani

Sliema Wanderers substitutes

NwokoPriadunFrendoKoneGonçalvesAgiusLauriBenderGauciMatroudCauchi